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Survival-weighted outcomes ('Rich, Broke or Dead')

A run-to-90 test treats every late shortfall as a failure — but you might not live that long. Survival weighting blends 'will it last?' with 'how likely am I to still be here?'

Planning to a fixed age (say 90) counts a shortfall at 89 as a full failure — even though many people won't reach 89. That can make a plan look riskier than it really is. The survival-weighted view weights each future year by the chance you're still alive to experience it, using Australian Life Tables.

Rich, broke or dead

For each year it splits the outcomes into three: you're rich (money comfortably lasting), broke (savings gone), or dead (didn't reach this age). The headline is the honest one most people actually want: your chance of outliving your money — running out *while you're still alive*.

For couples it uses last-survivor mortality (the plan needs to last while *either* partner is alive), and you can set each person's sex for a more accurate curve.

Try it — worked examples

Related concepts

See it in your own plan

Model your super, the Age Pension and how long your money lasts — free, in today's dollars.

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