Can the average Australian retire comfortably?
A popular r/AusFinance thread did the maths and landed on a cheerful answer: just over $1 million. We reproduce it to the dollar, run its five what-ifs — then add the catch the top comment raised.
The calculation
The idea is simple: take an average 38-year-old, add nothing but their compulsory employer super for 29 years, grow it at a long-run return, and see what's left at 67 — all expressed in today's dollars so it's comparable to money now. Here are the inputs used:
- Age now → retirement
- 38 → 67 (29 years)
- Median full-time income
- $90,500/yr
- Average super balance (age 38)
- $182,800
- Super guarantee
- 12%
- Super return (after 15% tax)
- 6.4% p.a., less a 1% fee
- Pay growth / inflation
- 2.6% / 2.5% p.a.
at 67, in today's dollars — comfortably above the ASFA comfortable lump sum of $630,000 for a single. So, on these averages: yes.
Try it with your own numbers
The same formula, interactive. Use the presets to jump to the thread's scenarios — or the all-important median super one.
That clears the ASFA comfortable target of $630,000 for a single.
“On these averages it holds up — but averages hide a lot. Try the median balance and see what happens.”
General information only, not personal financial advice. A simplified reproduction of the thread's formula in today's dollars: super grows at the return you set, contributions are taxed 15% going in and netted of the fee, and nothing extra is added. It stops at the balance — it doesn't model the Age Pension, tax in retirement, or how long the money lasts once you draw it down. The ASFA comfortable/modest figures are lump sums that already assume a part Age Pension and a paid-off home. For the full picture, run it through the planner.
Five what-ifs — all still comfortable
The thread stress-tested the result five ways. Impressively, each one still clears the $630,000 comfortable mark:
| Change | Balance at 67 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Super balance a third ($61k) | $643,000 | still comfortable |
| No pay rises ever (0% growth) | $892,000 | still comfortable |
| 4% inflation the whole way | $658,000 | still comfortable |
| Retire at 60, not 67 | $717,000 | still comfortable |
| Part-time, 0.5 FTE ($45,250) | $771,000 | still comfortable |
The catch: average vs median
The thread's most-upvoted reply spotted the weak link: the $182,800 super balance is an average, and super averages are dragged up by a relatively small number of very large balances. The median for a 35–44-year-old is closer to ~$55,000 — less than a third of the figure used, and lower again for women (who more often take career breaks).
Swap the average for the median and the headline changes a lot. On exactly the same assumptions, the projection drops from ~$1,002,740 to about $625,000 — right on the comfortable line, not comfortably past it. And the median case only holds if you're a full-time median earner for 29 unbroken years. Pull any one lever and it slips under: median + retire at 60 → ~$426,000; median + part-time → ~$394,000.
The thread's answer isn't wrong — it's just answering for the average person, who is wealthier than the typical one. Try the “Median super” preset above and watch the verdict move.
What “comfortable” actually means
One more thing the lump-sum comparison hides: the ASFA comfortable figure ($630,000 for a single, about $54,840/yr to spend) is a drawdown target — it assumes you spend the balance down over your retirement and receive a part Age Pension, owning your home outright. It's not a pool you live off the interest of forever. The modest standard ($110,000 lump sum) leans even more on the pension.
That's the real limit of a one-line formula: it stops at the balance. It can't tell you the income that balance actually funds once you add the Age Pension and tax, or how long it lasts, or what a bad run of early markets does to it. That's exactly what the planner is for.
See what your balance actually funds
The free planner takes it past the balance — your super and the Age Pension, year by year, in today's dollars: the income it supports, the tax, and how long it lasts.
Open the plannerGeneral information only, current at 2026-27 — not personal financial advice. Figures reproduce a third-party calculation and are estimates in today's dollars; your own result depends on your income, contributions, returns, fees and circumstances. ASFA Retirement Standard figures are indicative and updated quarterly. Confirm current details with the Moneysmart or a licensed financial adviser before acting.